Monday 6 July 2015

What did you do Sacramento?

I personally hate the idea of doing a salary dump without any kind of commitment from the player/players they are targeting. This is the type of move you should be making once you have a verbal commitment from a player or if the assets moved do not ruin the franchise. I understand that the Woj will probably break the verbal commitment before he actually commits and the team taking on the salary will have a ton of leverage over them. IMO losing a pick or an extra player is worth it in the end if I get my guy. But my team better have a solid foundation and is a piece or two away from being a contender or at least a perennial playoff team. The risk is high but so should the return. Recently the Cavs dumped Zeller, Jack, Karasev with picks to free up room for Lebron. This was after all the reports of Lebron being done in Miami and rumors that he was interested in going home to Cleveland. Lebron did not commit yet but the odds were very much in their favor, so really calling this a risk is a bit of a stretch. We also know how that turned out for the Cavs. And just this season the Milwaukee Bucks pulled off a salary dump of their own. They got rid of $7+mill of Ilyasova for the non-guaranteed contracts of Caron Butler and Shawne Williams. It worked out for the Bucks and they landed their big man Greg Monroe. The Bucks have a great young core already in place. The Bucks finished last season as a .500 team but with the continued growth of that core and the addition of Monroe they are set to make noise in the very competitive central division. In these scenarios there was relatively low risk involved with a very high return. The Cavs gave up a middle of the road prospect in Zeller, a solid backup in Jack, a project in Karasev, and a late first round pick. Milwaukee gave up Ilyasova an injury plauged SF/PF that was going to lose out to Middleton, Antetokounmpo, and Parker anyways. Also, what the Suns did in their bid for the services of Aldridge was low risk, high reward. They sadly broke up the Morris twins but they were close enough to being the same player that they could afford to take the chance. Granger never saw the floor and Bullock is still an unknown entity but young enough to have a chance.

Now on to what the Kings did:
To Philly:
- Nik Stauskas
- Jason Thompson
- Carl Landry
- 2018 1st rd pick (top-10 protected)
- Right to swap 1st rd pick w/Kings in '16
- Right to swap 1st rd pick w/Kings in '17
To Sacramento:
- Rights to Arturas Gudaitis (47th pick in 2015)
- Rights to Luka Mitrovic (60th pick in 2015)

Note Via NbaDraft.net:
"Bulls receive King's 2015 first round pick. Top 10 protected. 2015-2017, or second round pick in 2018 or extinguished"

Remember the ideal scenario is low risk, high return. But at the very least you want high risk, high return. Even if Cousins stays in Sacramento this team is still going to be a top 10 lottery team. The Kings are in a hyper competitive western conference and a roster as thin as a piece of paper. If Philly has a worse record, which I doubt at the time of writing this, they have an extra shot at landing a top 3 pick. Let's say the Kings have the 7th worst record and Philly is 2nd last. The pick swap would not make any sense prior to the lottery. But what the pick swap does is essentially give Philly extra ping pong balls in the lottery. Philly ends up with an extra 4.3% chance at the #1 pick and a an extra 15% at landing a top 3 pick. Who knows what Stauskas becomes, but at the very least he could become a specialist like Kapono. Jason Thompson can be a good player off the bench for them especially with Embiid questionable for the season, they could also move him to a team desperate for a big. Landry feels like an add on that Philly had to take, he could play mentor or be moved later on. Also, a top 10 protected 1st rounder in 2018 and beyond with other restrictions that have not been reported yet. In the current NBA it feels like teams are over valuing a 1st round pick, especially the late ones. But a top 10 with high probability of a top 3 pick does not compare. All that for the rights to a couple of Euro stashes that may never see an NBA court and the chance to sign Rondo, Ellis, and Matthews. They did the deal so late into day 1 that all the big name players had already commited or they have zero chance with the ones remaing. Their current roster is basically Cousins, Gay, McLemore, Cauley-Stein, Collison, McCallum, Moreland, and Stockton. That's it. Not an appetizing roster to look at, especially from a free agents point of view. Even if they landed 2 out of the 3 targets, how would that propel this team from bottom feeders into playoff contention in the west? That team does not even look like a .500 team. Even if they got 2 of those players they would have to fill their bench with minimum deals for players that would probably not play on other teams. It just doesn't make any sense. This team is screwed for the next 3 years at the very least. This was a high risk, with potential moderate return but it ended up as a big fat no return for the Kings. Get ready Seattle, start breaking ground on that stadium.